The 2013 Hurricane Season: Caribbean Predictions

Infrared Image of Hurricane Sandy, October 2013 from NOAA

NOAA Infrared Image of Hurricane Sandy south of Jamaica, 24 October 2012

With just a week to go until the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially released its predictions for the upcoming season. As expected, and as many other experts have stated, the prediction is for an active or extremely active hurricane season this year as follows:

For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

What does this mean for the Caribbean specifically?  A team of meteorologists at Colorado State University have published a forecast of hurricane activity and landfall probability for 2013 which states that: ‘The islands of the Caribbean have a 61% probability that a major hurricane will strike land.’  The report also identifies the Bahamas as the territory with the record for the most Caribbean hurricane activity while the ABC (Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao) Islands and Trinidad and Tobago are the least likely to be affected.

The following are the names to be given to storms that form in the North Atlantic during the 2013. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2014. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2019 season and if there are more than 21 named storms, the letters of the Greek alphabet will be utilised. This is the same list used in the 2007 season, except for Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor which replaced DeanFelix, and Noel respectively.

  • Andrea 
  • Barry 
  • Chantal 
  • Dorian 
  • Erin 
  • Fernand 
  • Gabrielle 
  • Humberto 
  • Ingrid 
  • Jerry 
  • Karen 
  • Lorenzo 
  • Melissa 
  • Nestor 
  • Olga 
  • Pablo 
  • Rebekah 
  • Sebastien 
  • Tanya 
  • Van 
  • Wendy 
National Hurricane Center (NHC) map at Florida International University (FIU) cleared in preparation for the 2013 Hurricane Season.

National Hurricane Center (NHC) map at Florida International University (FIU) cleared in preparation for the 2013 Hurricane Season.

Stay in touch with Hill 60 Bump via our Facebook and Twitter feeds for more updates throughout the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season which will officially start on Saturday, June 1st 2013.

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